Albert et al. (2018). Effekt von Clustering Illusion (Cognitive Bias) bei Benutzung einer „Visual Analytics“ Umgebung. Forschungsdaten zur Studie 2017.

Bibliografische Informationen

Ersteller: Dietrich, Albert

Mitwirkende: Dietrich, Albert; Bedek, Michael; Huszar, Luca; Nussbaumer, Alexander

Förderung: European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. FP7-IP-608142 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/188614_de.html

Titel: Effekt von Clustering Illusion (Cognitive Bias) bei Benutzung einer „Visual Analytics“ Umgebung. Forschungsdaten zur Studie 2017

Jahr der Publikation: 2018

Zitation: Albert, D., Bedek, M., Huszar, L., & Nussbaumer, A. (2018). Effekt von Clustering Illusion (Cognitive Bias) bei Benutzung einer „Visual Analytics“ Umgebung. Forschungsdaten zur Studie 2017 (Version 1.0.0) [Daten und Dokumentation]. Trier: Forschungsdatenzentrum des Leibniz Institut für Psychologie ZPID. https://doi.org/10.5160/psychdata.dhat17ef10

Zusammenfassung

Clustering Illusion is a cognitive bias and defined as the tendency to see patterns where no patterns exist (Gilovich, 1991; Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985). This tendency can be observed when people interpret patterns or trends in random distributions. In the context of the VALCRI (Visual Analytics for Sense-making in CRiminal Intelligence analysis) project eight cognitive biases have been identified which may influence the decision-making process of the analysts. Assessment methods for other cognitive biases exist but this is not the case for the clustering illusion. Based on the study of Cook and Smallman (2007), who studied how cognitive biases affect a JIGSAW „Joint Intelligence Graphical Situation Awareness Web“ system, a task that enables to detect the clustering illusion in a visual analytics environment was created. This task was as follows: Participants interacted with a selected set of tools from a visual analytics environment. These tools showed the spatial and chronological distribution of crime incidents in two city districts of Birmingham. In each city district, there were 30 crime incidents. A 2×2 design of “random vs. pattern condition” and “interactive vs static condition” was used to detect the influence of patterns and the level of interaction on the decision-making of the participants:
In the random condition, the crime incidents have been randomly selected from a large set of incidents. In the pattern condition, the incidents have been selected in a way that there are increases or decreases over time and a spatial concentration of incidents in one of the two city districts. In the interactive condition, participants were allowed to interact with the tools to inspect the incidents from different perspectives. In the static condition, participants were asked to inspect the incidents as shown on the screen without interacting with the tools.
After inspecting the incidents for ten minutes, the participants were asked (i) to evaluate if they would increase police presence either in city district A or in city district B, (ii) to evaluate the certainty of their decision, (iii) to announce if their decision was based on the data or patterns and trends in the data and if yes (iv) if they could argue their decision. The univariate analysis of variance showed no significant difference between the random and pattern conditions nor between the interactive and static condition and no interactions. A significant correlation between certainty of the decision and justifying the decision with facts (r=.364, p <.001) was found.

Kodebuch

Kodebuch_dhat17ef10_huszar_0072_kb
PositionNameLabelValid_valuesMissing_values
30DEC_EXP_5Justification of decision (Begründung der Entscheidung)1 "yes (ja)"
2 "no (nein)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
7EDUCATIONThe highest educational level of the participants (Höchste abgeschlossene Ausbildung)2 "Higher School Certificate"
3 "University degree"
9 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
4TASKNUMBERNumber of task (Aufgabennummer)1 "Data in Conventry is ordered in pattern, data in Wolverhampton ordered randomly (Daten in Conventry sind in Mustern, die Daten im Wolverhampton zufällig geordnet)"
2 "Data in Wolverhampton is ordered in pattern, data in Conventry ordered randomly (Daten in Wolverhampton sind in Mustern, die Daten im Conventry zufällig geordnet)"
3 "Data in both districts are ordered randomly (Daten sind zufällig geordnet)"
4 "Data in both districts are ordered randomly (Daten sind zufällig geordnet)"
9 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
29DEC_SUR_4Decision-making reliability (Entscheidungssicherheit)1 "very sure (sehr sicher)"
2 "rather sure (eher sicher)"
3 "rather unsure (eher unsicher)"
4 "unsure (unsicher)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
18DIS_1B_10Parts of the chosen district- box 10 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 10)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
12DIS_1B_4Parts of the chosen district- box 4 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 4)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
13DIS_1B_5Parts of the chosen district- box 5 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 5)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
5GENDERGender (Geschlecht)1 "female (weiblich)"
2 "male (männlich)"
9 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
6AGEAge in years (Alter in Jahren)19-50 "years (Jahre)"999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
1CODECode of the participants (Versuchspersonennummer)1-32 "Code of the participants (Versuchspersonennummer)"99 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
2DISTRIBUTIONDistribution of data in VALCRI UI (Verteilung der Daten in VALCRI UI)1 "pattern (Muster)"
2 "random (Zufall)"
9 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
3INTERACTIONInteraction static vs interactive (statische vs interaktive Interaktion)1 "static (statisch)"
2 "interactive (interaktiv)"
9 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
28DIS_DAY_3Chosen daytime (Ausgewählte Tageszeit)1 "In the morning 4 -10 o'clock (In der Früh 4-10 Uhr)"
2 "During the day 10 - 16 o'clock (Tagsüber 10 - 16 Uhr)"
3 "In the evening 16 - 22 o'clock (Am Abend 16 - 22 Uhr)"
4 "At night 22 -4 o'clock (During the night 22-4 Uhr)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
27DIS_WEK_2_7Chosen day of the week - Sunday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Sonntag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
26DIS_WEK_2_6Chosen day of the week - Saturday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Samstag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
25DIS_WEK_2_5Chosen day of the week - Friday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Freitag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
24DIS_WEK_2_4Chosen day of the week - Thursday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Donnerstag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
23DIS_WEK_2_3Chosen day of the week - Wednesday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Mittwoch)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
22DIS_WEK_2_2Chosen day of the week - Tuesday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Dienstag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
19DIS_1B_11Parts of the chosen district- box 11 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 11)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
20DIS_1B_12Parts of the chosen district- box 12 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 12)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
21DIS_WEK_2_1Chosen day of the week - Monday (Ausgewählter Wochentag - Montag)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
17DIS_1B_9Parts of the chosen district- box 9 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 9)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
16DIS_1B_8Parts of the chosen district- box 8 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 8)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
15DIS_1B_7Parts of the chosen district- box 7 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 7)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
14DIS_1B_6Parts of the chosen district- box 6 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 6)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
8DIS_1AChosen district (ausgewählter Stadtteil)1 "Coventry"
2 "Wolverhampton"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
9DIS_1B_1Parts of the chosen district- box 1 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 1)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
10DIS_1B_2Parts of the chosen district- box 2 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 2)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
11DIS_1B_3Parts of the chosen district- box 3 (Teilbereiche des ausgewählten Stadtteils - Kästchen 3)0 "empty (nicht angekreuzt)"
1 "marked (angekreuzt)"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"
31DEC_CAT_6Justification of the decision - open answer (coded) (Begründung der Entscheidung - offene Antwort (kodiert))1 "time and number of cases in relation"
2 "time distribution"
3 "spatial and time distribution"
4 "spatial distribution"
5 "nonsense"
6 "attempt to create a hypothesis"
7 "statement about tendencies"
8 "statement about distribution"
9 "couldn`t answer"
999 "missing value (Fehlender Wert)"

Studienbeschreibung

Forschungsfragen/Hypothesen:

The following hypothesis were tested:

Participants will be more sure in their answers and could justify their answer in the pattern condition compared to the random condition.

Participants will be more sure in their answers and could justify their answer in the interactive condition compared to the static condition because they could – in principle – falsify the clustering illusion.

Forschungsdesign: Experimental design, Repeated Measurement Design, Laboratory Experiment; single measurement

Messinstrumente/Apparate:

Procedure:

The study has taken place in an examination room of the Graz University of Technology. First, all participants filled out an informed consent form. After that they were introduced to the Visual Analytics for Sense-making in CRiminal Intelligence analysis (VALCRI) platform by a short user manual. The participants had ten minutes time to become familiar with the user interface of the platform. This introduction phase was followed by a general instruction about the tasks. The participants had ten minutes time to complete each task. Participants were reminded by the instructor about the time limitation after five and after nine minutes. After each task, a small break was given. At the end of the fourth task the participants filled out a short demographic questionnaire. The order of the static and interactive condition and the four tasks were balanced. The experiment took one hour time and all the participants got 10 euro expense allowance.

Material and Setting:

For this study the VALCRI (http://valcri.org/about-valcri/) platform has been used. This platform aims to support the work of the law-enforcement agencies. It was designed to visualise a huge amount of data about criminal incidents.
First, 240 crime incidents in Birmingham´s city districts Coventry and Wolverhampton from the last 6 months (January 2017 to Juli 2017) were randomly selected. After this pre-selection, four examples with 60 crime incidents, 30 per district, were created.

Two of the examples were selected randomly to show no temporal and spatial patterns. The other two examples were created with a noticeable temporal and spatial pattern in one of the two city districts. All of the selected data sets included the following tools: The Location tool, the Time tool and the List tool. The Location tool indicates the spatial distribution of crime incidents, the Time tool shows the temporal distribution of crime incidents and the List tool provides some details about the incidents.
These tools have been selected because they are the most relevant ones for the daily work of analysts.

After each task the participants were asked i) to decide in which district they would increase the police presence, ii) how sure they were in their decision, iii) to announce if their decision was based on the data and if yes, iv) if they could justify their decision.

Datenerhebungsmethode:

Data collection in the presence of an experimenter
– Specialized Apparatuses or Measuring Instruments, namely VALCRI Software

Population: Primarily university students

Erhebungszeitraum:

Stichprobe: Convenience sample

Geschlechtsverteilung:

68,75% female subjects (n=22)
31,25% male subjects (n=10)


Altersverteilung: 19-46 years

Räumlicher Erfassungsbereich (Land/Region/Stadt): Austria/-/Graz

Probandenrekrutierung: The participants were recruited via different social media channels and the intern mail system of University of Graz. The participants recieved 10 Euro expense allowance.

Stichprobengröße: 32 individuals

Rücklauf/Ausfall:

Literatur

Weiterführende Literatur
Weiterführende Literatur
Bedek, M., Nussbaumer, A., Hillemann, E-C., & Albert, D. (2017). A Framework for Measuring Imagination in Visual Analytics Systems. In J. Bynielsson (Ed), Proceedings of the European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (pp. 151-154). Los Alamitos, Washington, Tokyo: IEEE Publications. doi: 10.1109/EISIC.2017.31
Cook, M. B., & Smallman, H. S. (2007). Visual evidence landscapes: Reducing bias in collaborative intelligence analysis. In Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (Ed.), Proceedings of the 51th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting (pp. 303-307), Los Angeles, CA: SAGE Publications.
Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn't so. The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: The Free Press.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive psychology, 17(3), 295-314.
Nussbaumer, A., Verbert, K., Hillemann, E-C., Bedek, M., & Albert, D. (2016). A Framework for Cognitive Bias Detection and Feedback in a Visual Analytics Environment. In J. Brynielsson & F. Johansson (Eds.), Proceedings of the European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC) (pp. 148 - 151), Los Alamitos, Washington, Tokyo: IEEE Publications.
PDF drucken